Virginia Gubernatorial Election: Poll sees all tied up before Tuesday’s finish line

Virginia State Capitol in Richmond, Photo: Varmin/Wikimedia Commons

A survey of likely voters on the eve of Virginia’s gubernatorial election finds that candidates for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general all are deadlocked. The rare neck and neck contest has raised the stakes in the Democratic and Republican politicians’ final frenzy to woo undecided voters.

According to a Roanoke College Poll of 781 voters from October 29 to November 2, Democrat candidate Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie are tied 47%-47%.

Libertarian Cliff Hyra has the support of three percent of likely voters while only three percent remain undecided, the poll for which the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of +3.5 percent.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Justin Fairfax and Republican Jill Vogel are tied (45%-45%) while incumbent Democrat Mark Herring and Republican John Adams are also tied (46%-46%) in the attorney general race.

Both Democrats and Republicans view Virginia as key reflection of their national standing.

Some of national issues like economy, immigration and health care have reverberated across debates and views among voter diverse communities. President Donald Trump’s agenda focusing on jobs and fixing immigration have been very much part of the debates and a glut of advertisements. But viewed from a perspective of their personal standings, both Gillespie and Northam present a contrast to candidates Trump and Hillary Clinton during the 2016 U.S. election campaign. Both get more positive reactions from Virginians.

Ed Gillespie and Ralph Northam
Photo Credit for Ralp Northam: Rklear /Wikimedia Commons
Photo credit for Ed Gillespie : Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

The survey says economic issues (jobs, growth, etc.) are seen as most important by 20 percent of respondents while seven percent assign taxes and one percent referencing debt a high place on the list of their priorities.

The Democrats are contesting the election amidst a brighter outlook for Virginia’s economy – which showed gains under the outgoing incumbent Governor Terry McAullife.

But they also face a series of questions from voters in some rural parts of the state that have not seen much improvement in their fortunes in recent years.

Here is what the Roanoke College Poll survey finds about the likely voter’s views on the two gubernatorial candidates performing on the issues:

Ed Gillespie: Economy: 47%,  Healthcare: 37%, Jobs: 44%, Immigration: 44%, Education: 40%, Taxes: 47% and Guns: 45%.

Ralph Northam: Economy: 39%, Health Care: 49%, Jobs: 40%, Immigration: 39%, Education: 46%, Taxes: 37% and Guns 39%.

The poll says the Republican Party is viewed unfavorably by 43 percent of likely voters (39% favorable), while the Democratic Party is also viewed unfavorably by 43 percent and favorably by 42 percent.

Meanwhile, independent analysts say the Republicans have been closing gaps toward the end of election campaigns in recent years. With that backdrop, the question whether Democrats would be able to retain governorship of the state, will also depend on factors including views about President Trump and performance of the incumbent governor.

But on the campaign trails, the last minute moves may revolve around courting undecided voters and ensuring a larger turnout on November 7. The two factors may well be decisive in the outcome of the stiff contest.