First-time Senator Ted Cruz defied polls to trounce Donald Trump in the Republican Iowa Caucus in the animated race for the White House, while self-proclaimed socialist Bernie Sanders surged on the back of young voters to set a stage for a nail-biting contest with Hillary Clinton for Democratic nomination.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio sprung yet another surprise with his late burst to clinch a strong third place in the extended Republican line-up, making it virtually a three-way fight with next voting just a week away in long nomination race for the Nov. 16 presidential election.
Barely hours after the results, presidential candidates were already on their way to the Granite state of New Hampshire where the Feb.9 traditional primary will most likely shorten the list of Republican hopefuls and intensify the battle between Democratic one-on-one rivals ahead of voting in South Carolina in March and later in Nevada.
The first presidential voting night in Iowa truly belonged to Texan Senator Cruz who grabbed 28 percent of the record Republican turnout to hand Real-Estate Mogul Trump his first political defeat.
“Tonight is a victory for the grassroots,” Cruz told the jubilant supporters. “Iowa has said… the Republican nomination and the next president of the United States will not be chosen by the media,” he said in an obvious reference to Trump who was often described by the media as “unstoppable”.
For the young Senator, the win in Iowa did not come about overnight or in months. Since his Senate entry in 2013, Cruz had been working on cultivating ties among the conservatives and religious fraternity in the traditional state. Supported by his father, himself a pastor, he approached evangelical leaders that ultimately helped create an army of volunteers to propel his campaign. Cruz invoked references and imagery from Christian theology in his caucus victory speech.
By early 2015, the Senator was confident enough to be the first of the Republican aspirants to announce his candidacy. Working as a war strategist, Cruz invested in data and chased every potential supporter to emerge as the front-runner in the first state to vote.
Part of his strategy was to target first-goers and mobilize Christian conservatives who had a little niche for politics. That helped Cruz stave off the late onslaught from Trump, who brought in Sarah Plain in later stages to boost his campaign, and even neutralize comments by Governor Terry Branstad that it would be “big mistake for Iowa to support” Cruz.
Cruz, who lags behind in New Hampshire, will need to retain his momentum to again overcome a challenge from Trump who for months had been dubbed a front-runner in the Republican nomination race built around his aggressive politics of anger, billions of dollars and alarmist approach to issues and propagation of discriminatory treatment of Muslims.
Trump appeared a little bit humble while conceding defeat to Cruz, but told his supporters he would go ahead to win the nomination. “We will go on to get the Republican nomination and we will go on to easily beat Hillary or Bernie or whoever the hell they throw up there.”
But after Iowa, achieving that nomination will be even more difficult for the Real-Estate tycoon who barely avoided relegated to third slot behind Marco Rubio who, with 23 percent voting, outperformed expectations.
Rubio’s post-result remarks were no less than a winning speech.
“We need to unify the conservative movement and the Republican party. I can do better than anyone else. We need to grow it, I can better than anyone who is running,” said the senator who presented himself as a “last chance” to do that.
Rubio benefitted from the big numbers of un-deciders who went his way in the voting. A late burst of activity, when he really went aggressive with his ad campaign, helped him build the momentum and take that right into the day of voting. He now touts his new surge to sell himself as the most viable establishment candidate to steal nomination from “outsiders –Trump and Cruz.
Iowa caucus also saw the closet Democratic battle between Clinton and Sanders who once started 40 percent behind the First Lady to finish with a deficit of just a few delegates. His surge means the Democratic Senator from Vermont was able to penetrate into the disaffected young, lower-income and more liberal Democrats.
The close contest – two separated with mere 0.3 percent margin – means Clinton will need to put her heart out into the campaign to win the nomination, she once was nearly guaranteed. Though a super-tight victory, the win can give Clinton a breathing space in New Hampshire where Sanders has an upper hand.
“It is great to be here with all of you and I am so thrilled that I am coming to New Hampshire after winning Iowa,” said an apparently relieved Clinton while speaking to a gathering after an overnight travel to the state. “I can tell you that…. It was lot better to win”.
The Iowa win means even if she loses to Sanders in New Hampshire, she can head to South Carolina with a bit of comfort of not having back-to-back defeats which could have made her next venture more difficult.
Sanders rode on the public anger over income inequality and his campaign targeted low-income group with the slogans of fighting a “corrupt” financial system, tuition-free public college and universal health.
He was also able to attract young University students and new-goers more leaned to the left. As much as 86 percent of Democrats between the age of 17 and 40 voted for Sanders as compared to 11 percent for Clinton, who was more popular among people between 50-year- and 64-year-old.
But going beyond New Hampshire and into South Carolina, Nevada and more broadly to South, Sanders will have to deal with a new kind of demography – more African Americans, more Hispanic and Asian votes – that will benefit Clinton, who has been playing politics in a traditional status-quo like approach to the current system as opposed to Sanders’ catchy emphasis on equality and change.
Good analysis Augustine. Keep it up.