As the U.S. prepares to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan after this week’s Pakistan-facilitated peace deal – that paves the way for negotiations between Kabul and the Afghan Taliban – a new study Wednesday called for anchoring the U.S.-Pakistan relationship on trade and economic cooperation that may sustain the high-stakes ties in the post-Afghan war years.
Authors of the report, released by the Middle East Institute, argue that the U.S. and Pakistan interests do not end with the conclusion of the Afghan war and that the upcoming transition in U.S. engagement in the region provides an opportunity for both countries to not only continue to work on security issues but also underpin the bilateral ties through trade and investment.
Since the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 in the wake of 9/11 terrorist attacks, the U.S.-Pakistan relations have revolved around security cooperation and Islamabad has often complained that Washington has for several years seen it through the prism of Afghan war.
Pakistan’s Ambassador-at-Large Ali Siddiqui attended the launch ceremony at the MEI,where several former diplomats also endorsed the importance of Washington and Islamabad fostering cooperative ties, particularly in the area of commerce and economic advancement.
“Creating a relationship premised on mutually defined priorities is difficult but not impossible,” Dr. Marvin G. Weinbaum, Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies at the Middle East Institute and Dr. Syed Mohammed Ali, an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, note in the study.
Their analysis – entitled ‘Seizing the Moment for Change – Pathways to a Sustainable US-Pakistan Relationship‘ and supported by several Washington-based think tank experts – looks at a range of incentives for stronger bilateral ties and identifies areas for mutual cooperation including economic opportunities. The study sees the relationship as important to creating “a more congenial atmosphere within this populous and vital region” of the world.
“This has never been an easy relationship but at different points in time when bilateral ties were ruptured both countries suffered.
“Pakistan’s political and economic stability, and an overall strengthening of the state, are in the U.S.’s interest.”
Dr. Weinbaum said the U.S. will continue to have multiple interests in the region including in Pakistan because the South Asian country is a nuclear power and lies at the intersection of American interests.
At the same time, he hinted at some of the challenges that may arise from the current opportunity to reorient the relationship.
“There are going to be some expectations from Pakistan, now that the U.S. is going to disengage (militarily from Afghanistan),” Weinbaum said, contemplating the future and even saw challenges for Pakistan if things don’t go right in Afghanistan.
The MEI study times with transition in U.S. military engagement in the region through Afghan peace deal and rapidly improving relations between the Trump White House and Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government. President Trump and PM Khan have met a couple of times as the U.S. has recognized Pakistan’s role in pushing the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table. President Trump, who had frozen assistance for Pakistan, has publicly praised the country’s cooperation and restored military training program for Pakistani officers.
Prof. Ali said Pakistan’s significance vis-a-vis peace and stability in Afghanistan does not end with a peace agreement between the U.S. and the Afghan Taliban. He said Islamabad will remain critical to pushing the warring Afghan parties toward working out a rapprochement or national reconciliation as the difficult process of agreement on power-sharing begins.
He also listed U.S. ties with India and the need for peace and stability in South Asia as a huge incentive for Washington to maintain close ties with Islamabad. His remarks referred to the perennial tensions between India and Pakistan, which have escalated recently in the wake of change in the status of Kashmir and communal violence targeting Indian Muslims.
Prof. Ali also noted that China, being a neighbor of Pakistan is a reality that should be accepted and saw a scope for U.S. participation in China Pakistan Economic Corridor Projects.
Analysts have long argued that it makes sense for the U.S. to have close ties with Pakistan in a region of such consequence with an array of interests with regard to its neighbors ranging from a rising China, a large trade and defense equipment market in India and India’s being a potential counterweight to China to an unpredictable Iran and stop Afghanistan’s descent into a chaos.
Ambassador Siddiqui marketed Pakistan as a destination for international investors, saying the country has moved 26 notches up the Ease of Doing Business ranking.
Dana M Marshall, President of Transnational Strategy Group, saw great value in the recommendation that the two countries expand the relationship through greater commerce and economic collaboration, although he said the future course is not clear at the moment. He also noted that the U.S. and Pakistan should have close ties irrespective of the White House having a Democrat or Republican as president.
“The issues are way more than simple politics — so I think that either way whether this president gets reelected or there is a new president, there should be a real opportunity (to advance ties).”
