Already embroiled in economic problems, Pakistan is now facing a period of political uncertainty in the months ahead as the Opposition parties have submitted a no-trust motion in the Parliament to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan.
In the presence of anti-floor crossing laws in the South Asian country, both the Government and the Opposition are trying their best to lure the smaller parties whose votes could tilt the balance either way. The two allied parties have had some longstanding grievances against the Khan’s PTI-led government in Islamabad.
A bone of contention is the leadership of Punjab, the biggest province and the source of much of the powerful military establishment. Imran Khan has reportedly lost the confidence of the establishment and now his major rivals Pakistan Muslim League (N) of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who calls the shots from his exile in London, and former president Asif Ali Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party are now openly wooing smaller parties to turn the tables on, Imran Khan.
Political observers say the establishment is being neutral in the political development that comes at a testing time for the nation. Despite Chinese investment, Pakistan has not been able to put its economic house in order, though Prime Minister Khan has launched a healthcare card service to relieve the poverty-stricken people, and last year, the economy improved its performance. Yet, Pakistan’s economic woes are myriad and any leader could easily be held responsible for the troubles like price-hike.
When he emerged victorious in the 2018 election, Khan’s appeal lay in his vow to root out corruption in the elite parties and government bureaucracy. He began by relentlessly pursuing corruption cases against both the billionaire politicians, Sharif and Zardari, raising the political temperatures. Now both the major parties PML(N) and PPP have come together and claim to have enough support to remove the prime minister.
The two power-brokers, who have several corrutpion cases pending against them in the accountability courts, have the backing of a religious political party, headed by Maulana Fazl ur Rehman.
For his part, the prime minister has defended his government’s performance, citing the tough pandemic years that have impacted economies worldwide, and has indicated that he is not ready to compromise his anti-corruption agenda even in the face of political turmoil. Some of his allies have also faced cases during his term, angering the traditional politicians used to give and take politicking of the past.
However, the PML (N) and PML (Q) depend on several regional players to drum up the numbers needed to show the door to the sitting prime minister with a vote in the lower chamber of the Parliament. Centered in Punjab, Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid) and urban Sindh’s Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), who has allied with the Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf Government for more than three years, have emerged as major political players. From the southwestern province, Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) and interior Sindh province’s Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) also count prominently in the political equation.
In a surprise move, three major opposition parties, Muslim League (N), Pakistan People’s Party, and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazal) have agreed to give the post of Punjab Province’s Chief Ministership to the speaker of the provincial assembly, Chaudhary Pervaiz Elahi.
“Our party has made up its mind about the upcoming no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan. The final consultation with other parties like MQM and Balochistan Awami Party will be concluded soon,” Chaudhary Pervaiz Elahi told mediamen in capital Islamabad on Sunday.
The reasons so far listed by the opposition parties to bring down the government of Imran Khan are – soaring inflation, bad governance, and an ineffective foreign policy.
However, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government claims that the high inflation rate is due to rising prices in the international market especially those of crude oil after the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Imran Khas has also been accused of alienating his own party backers due to his populist-style governance, which includes criticism of the country’s Western allies.
Since the submission of a no-confidence motion in the national assembly on March 8, both opposition and the government are claiming of mustering the support of the required number of members of the national assembly required to succeed or defeat the no-confidence move i.e. 172 in the 342 members national assembly, the lower house of Pakistan’s Parliament Majlis-e-Shura.
In Pakistan’s parliamentary history, no government has been toppled by a no-trust motion. In 1989, Benazir Bhutto’s government survived by a few votes.
Similarly, barring the 1970 general elections, the results of all the remaining 10 general elections have not been accepted by the losing sides. The agitation launched by the opposition after the 1977 elections had led to the imposition of Martial Law by General Ziaul Haque.
In the present scenario, the four smaller parties have attained great importance as their 17 votes can make or break the PTI government. If these votes come to the opposition, their tally will rise to 179, leaving the government with 162.
Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, the senior leader and de facto head of the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), is being considered as the major power broker as he enjoys influence over the other three smaller parties.
The PML-Q has 5 seats in the National Assembly and 10 members in the Punjab Assembly and in these ‘crucial’ times, this party is not less than a linchpin in the present political structure.
In a recent visit of Prime Minister Imran Khan to the Chaudhrys’ house, the PML-Q had reportedly asked Khan to replace his hand-picked and much-criticized Chief Minister Punjab Usman Buzdar with somebody else.
The party was given a written assurance by the PTI leadership that first it should support the government and defeat the no-trust move. However, the PML-Q leadership was not satisfied and doubted the promise.
According to local media reports, a consensus has been reached on Pervaiz Elahi’s name as the joint opposition’s candidate for Chief Minister of Punjab. Not only have the Jamiat Ulema Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) agreed to give the captaincy of the province with the largest population but the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which is traditionally seen as the traditional rival of the party in Punjab, also agreed to Pervaiz Elahi as the chief minister.
However, according to the PML-Q spokesperson, a final decision in this regard would be announced by the party head, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain. On the other hand, despite cracks visible within the ruling coalition, the PTI ministers continue to insist Imran Khan enjoys the full support of allies.
Meanwhile, the delay in decision-making by the four smaller but key coalition partners of the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) on the issue of a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan is not only prolonging the prevailing political uncertainty in the country, but has also started to unnerve the government.
Over the weekend, Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed alleged that the Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) was “blackmailing” the government in return for support during the opposition’s no-trust move.
The interior minister’s remarks invited the ire of the PML-Q leadership, and he received a quick and a befitting response from Federal Minister for Water Resources Chaudhry Moonis Elahi, who in a tweet alleged that Ahmed “used to take money from the party’s elders during his student life”.
The PML-Q has now acquired a central role in the ongoing political drama despite having only five MNAs. It seems that the three other allies — the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), and Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) — are waiting for each other to make a decision.
Given the party position in the National Assembly, it is clear that if any two of the four allies make a decision to quit the ruling coalition, Prime Minister Imran Khan will lose the majority in the 342-member house. As many as 17 MNAs belong to these four coalition parties or alliances and the ruling party had the support of 179 MNAs at present.
However, the ruling party PTI seems to be confident on surviving the no-trust move.
“The Opposition will not be able to muster the support of 172 members. It may have the support of only 154 members,” Senator Faisal Javed Khan said on Sunday.
Prime Minister Imran Khan has warned opposition of strict action by the government after the failure of the no-confidence motion.
The government is also planning to hold a million march outside the parliament house a day before the voting on the motion with an ultimate aim to show its power and intimidate the opposition.
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