Hillary Clinton begins the election day with a 6-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Virginia at 48-42 percent – a politically important parameter of election prospects from the swing state.
The Wason Center for Public Policy’s final tracking survey of likely Virginian voters before election day says if the remaining undecided voters were allocated to each candidate proportionally to their share of all decided voters, Clinton would reach the 50 percent mark, while Trump would rise to 44 percent.
This survey was conducted from Nov.1 to 6, after the news that the FBI was again examining emails connected to Clinton.
The telephone survey polled 1,193 likely Virginia voters, with an overall margin of error of +/- 3.6 % at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.
“The fundamental structure of the Virginia electorate has settled in Clinton’s favor,” the Center said.
Moreover, Clinton’s lead is built upon much stronger party loyalty than Trump. She has the support of 92 percent of Democrats, while Trump has the support of 82 percent of Republicans. Both candidates have the highest levels of party loyalty since the Wason Center tracking surveys began in late September, suggesting partisans have come home as much as they are going to. Independents are split between Clinton and Trump, with 42 percent going to each.
“Any electoral victory has to begin with fundamentally solid party support,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director of the Wason Center. “Clinton has that going into Election Day, and Trump continues to struggle with it.”
Regionally, the poll finds that Northern Virginia is Clinton’s powerhouse region, giving her a nearly 2-1 vote margin over Trump, 59-33 percent. South-Southwest continues to be a powerhouse for Trump, also giving him a nearly 2-1 vote margin, 56-34 percent.
According to the Center, Clinton has led Trump for the past six weeks in the Hampton Roads and Richmond regions but she has not had a majority of support in either one. A majority of Hampton Roads voters now say they will vote for Clinton over Trump, 54-39 percent, and voters in the Richmond region support Clinton over Trump, 47-39 percent.
“The overall gender gap in Clinton’s favor stands at 16 points, as women favor Clinton 5337 percent. However, white women favor Trump 48-42. Men lean toward Trump, 47-42 percent overall, and white men favor Trump by fully 62-29 percent. Millennials, initially tepid on Clinton, now support her overwhelmingly over Trump, 56-33 percent.
“In the closing week, women and especially non-white women are closing ranks around Clinton,” said Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director of the Wason Center.
With white college-educated voters, Clinton holds a small but significant lead, 47-42 percent. Nationally, no Democratic candidate has won the white college-educated vote since 1956. Among non-college educated voters, Trump holds a 66-28 percent lead.
